Skip to comments.Donald Trump Isn't Rudy Giuliani, He's Howard Dean
Posted on 01/04/2016 6:57:51 AM PST by conservativejoy
How Will Trump Handle Losing Iowa?
If you scratch any Republican pundit on the face of the earth, a comparison between Trump's 2016 campaign and Rudy Giuliani's 2008 campaign will fall out. If the point is to illustrate that being the frontrunner at this stage of the race won't necessarily translate to victory, then these pundits are on solid ground. If the point is to draw a meaningful parallel between the current Trump boom and the forces that drove Giuliani to the top, and then back down to the bottom, of the 2008 pile, then they are dead wrong.
By far the more meaningful comparison to Trump 2016 is the Howard Dean 2004 campaign.
Howard Dean's improbable 2004 run, which was viewed with horror by the Democrat establishment of the time, was motivated by almost the exact same forces that are currently animating Trump's run. Democrats in late 2003 and early 2004 were, beyond anything, angry at their party's establishment for their perceived (and actual) unwillingness to stop or even slow the agenda of George W. Bush. Therefore, they ignored their party establishment's urgent warnings that Dean was too hard-edged, too frank, and too willing to engage in unseemly insults against his opponents.
To Democrat activists in 2004, Dean's personality foibles were the raison d'etre of the Howard Dean candidacy. Features, if you will, not bugs. And Democrat primary voters allowed themselves, at least for a period of several months, to not care about the mounting evidence that Dean would be a dream general election opponent for the hated George W. Bush.
The first sign that things were amiss in the Dean campaign came not in his national poll numbers, but rather in Iowa, where he was perceived to have previously run with strength. Polls taken just days before the caucuses actually forecast that Dean would lose to both Kerry and Edwards (even though Dean had been running in first there for most of the campaign), but for Dean, the key was to remain ahead of Gephardt for third, which he successfully did. However, in the course of turning his fiery rhetoric on Gephardt, Dean alienated himself from liberals both in Iowa and nationwide, and as a result finished a surprisingly anemic third.
Dean should have still been in a strong position going forward, since New Hampshire was right next door to his home state of Vermont, and national polls still showed him in the lead. However, Dean's ugly personal meltdown in Iowa, culminating with the yeargh heard 'round the world, ultimately doomed him in New Hampshire, and Kerry was off to the races.
What killed Howard Dean was that he was no more able to take crap from Democrat voters , or other Democrat candidates , than he was from George W. Bush. There's a way that you can lose Iowa in devastating fashion and still survive to win the nomination, as numerous candidates from both parties have done before. If you can display grace in defeat, present a cogent plan for your path to the nomination without Iowa, and show that you have learned from the experience, losing in Iowa doesnât even have to be that damaging.
However, nothing thus far has indicated that Donald Trump has the capacity to demonstrate any of those things. His increasingly panicked response to the threat Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) 100% presents to his chances in Iowa , even before the first votes are cast , suggests that taking a strategic loss (in politics) is not something Trump is prepared to handle on a personal level.
It may, in a parallel to 2004, cause Trump to go increasingly negative against Cruz in the same way Dean went negative after Gephardt , which may well cause Limbaugh, Levin, et al to turn on Trump for good. Whether Trump can retain his lead without those two carrying his water day after day (or worse, with them actively fighting against him) is perhaps a question that Trump doesn't want the answer to.
But if the polling is any indicator, Trump ought to prepare for losing Iowa as an inevitability rather than as a possibility, especially given that Cruz has built a maniacally efficient ground game and targeting system in Iowa that will likely lead to him outperforming his standing in the polls. If he loses it like Mitt Romney did in 2012, he will be fine. If he loses it like Howard Dean did in 2004, he will be toast.
I am trying to get straight in my minds who’s who amongst these verbose yeawhos with TDS. Who is Leo Wolf for?
Sure a bunch of panty wadding going on at Red State
yeah, Red State is weirdly obsessed with Trump. They have lost their marbles. Even Erickson got his mind straight on the way out. He still is not for Trump, but he’s all in if he wins the nomination. The leftovers at RS are off the reservation in this election.
Red State is Eric Erickson.
Eric Erickson IS the GOPe. Fact.
Howard couldn’t carry The Donald’s jock...
They’re singing the Blues @ RedState.
Erick Erickson supposedly divested himself of the place, but it sure seems like he’s still handing out the tampons over there. FURS
Not only is Trump Howard Dean he’s also Mitt Romney, a liberal pretending to be a conservative.
It’s going to be pretty funny to see what happens here on FR after Trump becomes the inevitable nominee. It will be joy-less for some.
I think Erickson is gone from Red State.
What a damn stupid title. Why should I waste my time reading the article?
I saw an interesting reminder that Isara posted in a thread yesterday. I may not have the figures exactly, but at this time in the race last election, Gingrich was at 37% and Romney was at 22% nationally. Just shows how the tide can turn quickly.
And Howard Dean and Trump are both Democrats.
National polls at this time don’t mean much before primaries, Howard Dean was up huge against the DNC pack in 2004, but then he got smacked around in Iowa, had his outburst ,lost bad in New Hampshire and his national polls cratered. Hillary Clinton, a senator with universal name recognition, was up 29 points nationally in 2008 before Iowa and then lost to Obama. National polls can flucuate at the drop of a hat before and after primaries kick off, it doesn’t matter how huge someone’s lead is.
I’ve been saying this for months. Trump’s campaign managers had better pay close attention to what felled Dean.
Yes, because voting for the same conservative politicians for the past 7 years who told us conservative this and conservative that to get our votes resulted in them going to DC and changing the place../S
Not like Huckabee or Santorum did winning it.
What a cutie! How old is Louie now?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.