Skip to comments.Ratings Changes in 21 Districts
Posted on 02/08/2018 3:09:44 PM PST by SMGFan
The first two months of 2018 have given both parties reasons for optimism. Republicans have cut Democrats' lead in the FiveThirtyEight average of generic congressional ballot polls in half, from roughly 12 points in December to about six points today. As debates over unpopular health care and tax bills have subsided, news of strong economic data and record-high stocks (at least until late last week) has likely aided the GOP.
However, most new district-by-district fundraising and polling numbers are downright terrible for Republicans, even in seats previously thought to be safe. In the fourth quarter of 2017, 39 Republican House incumbents were outraised by at least one Democratic challenger, and private polls and special election results suggest Democrats are highly competitive even in some districts President Trump won by wide margins.
At first glance, these two data trends might seem at odds with each other. How could Democrats' lead in national polls be shrinking while their odds in individual districts improve? The answer: the "macro" outlook for the House (national polls) and the "micro" view (district-by-district) aren't diverging; they're coming into alignment.
Democrats probably need at least a six or seven point lead on the generic ballot to win the majority, thanks to the GOP's redistricting edge and Democratic voters' tendency to cluster and waste votes in safe districts. Democrats have been above that threshold most of the past year. However, only gradually have the GOP's district-level problems come into view, as more Democrats announce candidacies and fundraising totals.
6 GOP seats lean Dem
Toss Ups are 3 Dem 18 GOP
Assuming the likely/lean pans out, the Dims have to take 20 of 21 tossups to switch things. And the GOP is leading in 18 of the 21.
I no longer trust Charlie Cook.
I think the Cook political report is going to be really biased this year.
I look at 2018 as of NOW as this:
First, you can’t tell poop this early. If you want to start throwing predictions around in late August and September, then I will pay attention.
For all the hoopla about the dems and their money raising “crush” in the districts, I note how what fails to be mentioned is the fact that the DNC is broke. The Republicans have the RNC as a counter plus I refuse to believe that Trump does not a fund raising advantage. I think the Democrats have to raise moola in the districts or they would be toast.
Finally, there is no doubt the the GOP congress was up against it from the get go. First, they are, for the most part, not by of or for Trump. Second, they are the party in power when their party holds the presidency. The party out of power is always more motivated/desperate.
Given these two factors, turn out will be down for the GOP. The question the is how effective Trump will be in counteracting the low turnout and getting the voters to the polls. Will the voters respond to Trump on the campaign trail and say “I hate the GOP congress critters but I will still turnout for Trump” or will they stay home nonetheless.
We shall see.
As poorly as the gop-e has governed I can see a revolt of the faithful as in 2006-2008.
Even the partisan Mr. Cook has solid 168 Rep House seats and 49 likely/lean Republican. That makes 217, just one short of a majority.
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