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Michael Barone: Joe the Plumber Gives McCain a Chance to Overtake Obama
US News ^

Posted on 10/17/2008 1:42:24 PM PDT by Chet 99

Joe the Plumber Gives McCain a Chance to Overtake Obama

October 17, 2008 03:50 PM ET | Michael Barone | Permanent Link | Print

It was October 13. The candidate of the out party seemed to be cruising toward victory. He projected an image of confidence, promising to restore national unity, and ignored his opponent. Then he made a little mistake. Veteran reporter Robert J. Donovan tells the story:

"As the [candidate] had begun to speak from the rear platform in Beaucoup, Illinois, his train suddenly lurched a few feet backward toward the crowd in what might have been, if the movement had continued, a serious accident. However, the train stopped quickly, yet [the candidate], momentarily losing his poise, exclaimed into the microphone, "That's the first lunatic I've had for an engineer. He probably ought to be shot at sunrise, but I guess we can let him off because no one was hurt.'"

The candidate was Thomas E. Dewey, who was running against Harry Truman in 1948. The most recent Gallup polls showed Dewey leading Truman 46 percent to 40 percent (September 23-28) and 46.5 percent to 39 percent (September 10-15). Truman seized on the "engineer" comment, and Truman backers portrayed it as an example of elite Republican contempt for the working man. The final Gallup poll, conducted October 15-25, showed Dewey still ahead 49.5 percent to 44.5 percent.

The story goes that Dewey encountered Dr. George Gallup during the campaign and asked why he didn't keep polling after October 25. Dr. Gallup replied that in his vast experience—which consisted of just three presidential campaigns, since the first Gallup poll was taken in October 1935—voters did not change their minds in the last weeks of the campaign.

(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; barone; joetheplumber; mccain; obama; wurzelbacher

1 posted on 10/17/2008 1:42:24 PM PDT by Chet 99
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To: Chet 99

I sure hope he’s right!
It’s like Joe was a gift from on high. ;^)


2 posted on 10/17/2008 1:45:00 PM PDT by kimchi lover (Joe the Plumber is my Homeboy!)
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To: Chet 99
I have one problem with this-any time you hear someone invoke Truman-Dewey, they're more likely to lose.

that said, it's usually in the vein that "I'm a fighter just like Harry Truman!" Mondale, Dukakis, Dole, and Kerry all invoked Truman in this way.

The encouraging thing is, this is the first time I heard this story, that no one has ever gone into the internals of WHY Dewey blew it.

3 posted on 10/17/2008 1:46:23 PM PDT by HammerOfTheDogs
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To: Chet 99
I predict Joe is the October Surprise. And Obama and his media minions didn't realize it until it was too late.


4 posted on 10/17/2008 1:46:53 PM PDT by nhwingut (,)
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To: Chet 99

I’m buying stock in plunger manufacturing companies.

We should be expecting every freeper in a state with an Obama rally or event to be purchasing plungers and supporting Joe.

I’m with Joe!


5 posted on 10/17/2008 1:47:03 PM PDT by Gemsbok (Fight voter FRAUD (Acorn)(Obama) and be a poll worker or observer: Beat them at their own game!)
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To: Gemsbok

Plungers are the new flip flops.


6 posted on 10/17/2008 1:47:48 PM PDT by nhwingut (,)
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To: Chet 99

I’m buying stock in plunger manufacturing companies.

We should be expecting every freeper in a state with an Obama rally or event to be purchasing plungers and supporting Joe.

I’m with Joe!


7 posted on 10/17/2008 1:48:01 PM PDT by Gemsbok (Fight voter FRAUD (Acorn)(Obama) and be a poll worker or observer: Beat them at their own game!)
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To: Chet 99

CONGRATULATIONS, TOM DEWEY

Congratulations, Tom Dewey
You won by a landslide today
Through thick and through thin
We knew you would win
Cause who’d ever vote to let Truman stay in
Congratulations, Tom Dewey
Your Republican dreams have come true
Here’s a victory roar
For president number thirty-four
The White House is waiting for you


8 posted on 10/17/2008 1:51:26 PM PDT by HammerOfTheDogs
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To: Chet 99

My biggest problem with Barone’s comparison is related to the polling itself. It is doubtful that the Dewey-Truman polls were skewed towards one candidate as much as the current polls are. Even when one takes out the ‘outliers’ it is unlikely that Obama is really up by 6-points.


9 posted on 10/17/2008 1:52:20 PM PDT by tatown (RINO's have destroyed the Republican party.)
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To: Chet 99

As a licensed plumber from Georgia I can vouch for the vastly superior intelligence of Plumbers.

I can supply plungers to anyone who needs one {used ones at a discount}


10 posted on 10/17/2008 1:53:22 PM PDT by southernerwithanattitude ({new and improved redneck})
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To: kimchi lover

Joe refocussed the campaign on the difference between the ideologies of redistribution vs wealth creation.

That’s one we’ll win every time.


11 posted on 10/17/2008 1:54:59 PM PDT by MrB (0bama supporters: What's the attraction? The Marxism or the Infanticide?)
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To: Chet 99

12 posted on 10/17/2008 1:55:09 PM PDT by xcamel (Conservatives start smart, and get rich, liberals start rich, and get stupid.)
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To: Chet 99
I AM JOE
Photobucket
13 posted on 10/17/2008 1:55:59 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper (Liberal anti-US Obama win would be the first time I am ashamed of my country.)
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To: Chet 99

I stand by my prediction but tempered by the following disclaimer: I am right as often as Dick Morris and even a stopped clock is on target two times a day.

My granddaughter, in the year 2020 perhaps, will study American history. She will read of the three words that brought down the almost guaranteed presidency of the first African American President: “SPREAD THE WEALTH”.


14 posted on 10/17/2008 1:56:21 PM PDT by Fishtalk
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To: Chet 99

Joe means nothing unless McCain gets Obama’s video on the air. Haven’t seen a thing.


15 posted on 10/17/2008 1:56:58 PM PDT by Swampmarine
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To: Chet 99
Photobucket My prized plunger!!!
16 posted on 10/17/2008 1:57:28 PM PDT by blf1776 (Compassionate Conservatism Is Dead - It is time to fight, fight, FIGHT!!!!)
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To: nhwingut

A October surprise is something that is pre planned.

The only way that Joe is the October surprise is if he was a plant which would be impossible considering no one knew BO was going to be in his neighborhood.

So lets stop calling Joe the OS.

I think the real planned OS is yet to come next week.


17 posted on 10/17/2008 1:57:57 PM PDT by Jazz1968
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To: Chet 99
Please spread the word and help defeat the MSM and Obama campaign to supress the conservative vote by pointing folks to:

SARAH PALIN DRAWING LARGE CROWDS ALL ACROSS AMERICA
http://www.jeffhead.com/palin/palin-hiding.htm

One look at those crowds and people will know the real truth about what is happening on the ground in this campaign right now.

18 posted on 10/17/2008 1:58:44 PM PDT by Jeff Head (Freedom is not free...never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: Chet 99

It’s my understanding that because of Obama, Joe lost his job. Anyone know about this? I’ve also heard that Obama was mocking in his last speech.


19 posted on 10/17/2008 2:01:26 PM PDT by RC2
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To: RC2

I don’t think so - they were trying to get that to happen, the fascists, but I don’t think they actually got the job done.


20 posted on 10/17/2008 2:03:27 PM PDT by MrB (0bama supporters: What's the attraction? The Marxism or the Infanticide?)
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To: HammerOfTheDogs

The problem with Barone’s usually solid analysis is that ALL the polls have closed, and closed a lot more than 6-7%. Gallup’s LV is 4%; TIPP is at 3-5%; the state polls we’ve seen here have now had McCain up in OH in the last two polls; tied in FL (when he was down 7); and on and on. There is very noticeable movement out there, and it’s all in McCain’s direction-—and most of it was before Joe the Plumber got to be so well known.


21 posted on 10/17/2008 2:03:30 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: kimchi lover

From this post to Gods ears!


22 posted on 10/17/2008 2:06:23 PM PDT by Oldpuppymax (AGENDA OF THE LEFT EXPOSED)
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To: southernerwithanattitude

My husband, who’s having a ball of Joe the P’s newfound fame, spends his days selling plumbing stuff to plumbers in his job in a plumbing warehouse.

When his Mom visits husband treats us to a tour of famous plumber’s houses here in southern Delaware. It is astounding. They have HUGE mansions and let’s not forget that it was Thomas Capano’s plumbing brother who helped him get rid of the body then turned his murdering brother into the cops. Which has nothing to do with nothing but I’m just sayin’.

So okay, I’m an accountant and my specialty was small businesses. I got news for Biden and Obama, neither of whom ever went out and worked a day in their damn lives save for the public teat, but the waaaaay vast majority of small businesses bring in gross revenues of 1/4 million a year, yes they do. My neice ran a little beauty salon and her gross revenues ran that high. Remember this is only about five grand a week. I got a bridge to sell ole Joe and the Big Zero if they think that’s the exception. They’re both out and about and acting like this mythical quarter million is the net in someone’s paycheck.

Joe, the infamous Joe who will bring down Obama’s presidency God bless him, wants to buy his boss’ plumbing BUSINESS and a quarter million dollar gross revenue is not only possible, it’s very, very likely.

Now what Joe the Plumber gets in his hot little hand is what’s left after paying employees, FICA taxes to the tune of 7.65%, unemployment taxes of around 3% of gross, FEDERAL unemployment taxes (which should be eliminated by the way) of around almost a percent, salaries, corporate taxes, inventory taxes, sales taxes (in Delaware vendors pay a GROSS RECEIPTS tax), and all other expenses is likely far from that quarter of a million. But you can believe that when Obama’s done with Joe the Plumber those taxes will be way higher and it WILL very much affect Joe’s bottom line.

They treat us like we’re all silly dunces who know nothing.

SPREAD THE WEALTH....remember those words. There’s just three of them but they will kill Obama.


23 posted on 10/17/2008 2:08:33 PM PDT by Fishtalk
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To: RC2

Even the left couldn’t be goofy enough to want Joe thrown out of his job! Talk about a PR disaster. Of course, the MSM would accuse Joe of having murdered a nun.


24 posted on 10/17/2008 2:11:20 PM PDT by Oldpuppymax (AGENDA OF THE LEFT EXPOSED)
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To: HammerOfTheDogs

Contempt for the working man.

The Achilles’ heel of the elitist candidate for the Presidency.

Henry Ford understood the psychology, that was why he could offer every employee at the Ford Motor Company a minimum of $5 a day, and keep the unions out for literally YEARS.

Henry said, “Sure, I’ll let the unions come in and attempt to organize, but then, every one of my employees will have to take a pay CUT to the level being paid at every other auto manufacturer.” He always paid a few cents per hour more than the competition over at GM, Dodge Brothers, Hudson and all the rest of the Detroit manufacturers.

Henry organized schools for combatting illiteracy among his employees, even teaching the recent immigrants good English along with other basic skills, so they could better do their jobs.

Despite all propaganda to the contrary, Henry really did respect any man who showed up on time and did an honest day’s work, and rewarded them accordingly.


25 posted on 10/17/2008 2:26:04 PM PDT by alloysteel (Just because you are a target, does not mean you have to be a victim.)
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To: southernerwithanattitude

I,ve got a black plunger, the kind you need to force air through an ALGORE toilet to drain it out. Stock up on those.
They can also serve as torches if the rubber soaks in the kerosene. That smoke stinks. Put those plungers on sale:)


26 posted on 10/17/2008 2:26:50 PM PDT by BobS
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To: Fishtalk

Fishtalk...quick question? I’m still confused as to Obama’s $250K tax bracket. Is he talking gross revenues or taxable income? Maybe he doesn’t even know?


27 posted on 10/17/2008 2:31:26 PM PDT by Kahuna
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To: Fishtalk
SPREAD THE WEALTH....remember those words. There’s just three of them but they will kill Obama.

If Obama wants to the spread the wealth, he should start with himself...he's the one with the four million dollar house.

28 posted on 10/17/2008 2:40:14 PM PDT by pray4liberty (The Lord is on the side of the truly righteous. The MSM is not.)
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To: Fishtalk
I wonder if Congress is willing to spread their wealth around, too! Or is it just our money they want to throw away?
29 posted on 10/17/2008 2:41:52 PM PDT by pray4liberty (The Lord is on the side of the truly righteous. The MSM is not.)
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To: Kahuna

Obama never stipulated whether it was gross or net. My detail above asserts that in the case of BUSINESS income- which was the premise of Joe the P’s question remember...he wanted to BUY a business not BECOME A PLUMBER-you start at gross, which is reduced, reduced, reduced by taxes and expenses until it gets down to a net which is then recorded on the owner’s tax return as income.

Had Joe the P said he wanted to be a “licensed” plumber he would have likely been talking about paycheck income. Plumbers, indeed few Americans, make an annual income of $250 grand a year.

Joe the P specifically said he wanted to buy a BUSINESS thus we assume he worried about his BUSINESS income which could be quite easily a quarter of a million. Again, the vast majority of small businesses make that much a year. This is only 5 grand a week gross income for God’s sake.

As for Obama....he don’t know what the hell he’s talking about. Nor his buddy Biden. When have either of these two ran a business of any kind?

Assholes, both of them.


30 posted on 10/17/2008 2:49:56 PM PDT by Fishtalk
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To: Chet 99; All

I read the following in the comments about the article, any thoughts from any freepers far more educated in these things than myself would be much appreciated;

A few facts for the liberal and Democratic commenters.

The Gallup poll of likely voters is: Obama 49%, McCain 47%. Gallup over smaples Democrats by 12.5%. If they were to sample by historical turnout, then it’s McCain in a landslide. The 2004 turnout was 37% Dems, 37% Reps.

The Rasmussen poll today is: Obama 50%, McCain 46%. Rasmussen over samples Democrats by 6.3%. If they were to sample by historical turnout, then it’s McCain in a landslide. The 2004 turnout was 37% Dems, 37% Reps.

Something to think about. Most likely outcome is 53% for McCain/Palin.


31 posted on 10/17/2008 2:59:34 PM PDT by Grunthor (It's not over until Lady Liberty sings!)
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To: kimchi lover

The ave. person should know that socialist pacifism policies will injure us domestically and internationally. And when one hears finally, finally, that John and Sarah are saying redistribution of our monies is SOCIALISM, PTL. Perhaps they do have a chance to knock off the Socialist ticket.


32 posted on 10/17/2008 4:09:53 PM PDT by phillyfanatic ( iT)
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To: RC2

I suspect he has.

Face it, his boss is probably none to happy about what is going on.


33 posted on 10/17/2008 4:15:22 PM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: Grunthor

I know we all point out that the polls oversample democrats, but that is supposed to reflect the current disparity in registration, i.e. more people identify themselves as democrats than Republicans. OK, is this the case? It is that simple. What do the current voter registration numbers tell us (albeit that could be skewed thanks to ACORN’s activities).


34 posted on 10/17/2008 4:29:44 PM PDT by FlipWilson
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To: Chet 99
You can feel it. I'm not saying McCain can win. With Palin in INDIANA this late in the game, that's a sure sign McCain-Palin are in serious trouble. But, you can see them getting off the deck in the midst of the media's standing eight count. There is something going on. People are beginning to get serious. Obama may be the hot date. McCain is who you marry. McCain has always said the dynamic of the race doesn't congeal until 72 hours out.

The debate the other night was more important than the MSM understands or lets on. McCain did better than they admit. We have seen this before. Humphrey nearly overtook Nixon in the last days in 1968. Ford came back to create a very tight race in 1976. Reagan won in 1980 on the weekend before election day. Ditto Bush in 2000. Why did Barry buy those half hour blocks on the networks? Some say to reach Red State voters to give him a national mandate. I don't buy it. They KNOW independents, currently undecided, will break for McCain. Obama also knows he better be above 4% nationally in their internal polls. That's traditional undercounting of GOP voters. They are banking on high turnouts of Blacks and younger voters. Maybe. Maybe not.

What's different now than in the past is the speed of the news cycle. In 1976 people got their news from the newspaper and evening network news. No more. A race can turn in hours.

I am not saying McCain is going to win. But, the voters resent being told its over. They haven't been sold on Barry yet. He hasn't sealed the deal. All things considered, he should be destroying McCain. Hillary would be untouchable at this point. McCain is behind, but he's off the canvas and still punching. he ought to get Sty Stallone to accompany he and Joe the Plumber for the last week of the campaign. Think he will get a cease and desist order if he opens with the theme from "Rocky?"

35 posted on 10/17/2008 5:47:19 PM PDT by davidtalker (David Gold - goldtalk.com)
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To: Chet 99
...voters did not change their minds in the last weeks of the campaign...When Jim "I'll tax your toilet paper" Florio ran for his second term as governor of this crappy state, he led in the polls over the last weekend by about 4-5 points. By the time the election was over a few days later, his opponent Christie "Let me borrow two billion from the state-employees' pension fund and never pay it back so everybody can blame the employees for budget problems twenty years from now" Todd Whitman had beaten Florio by about two points - it ain't over etc......
36 posted on 10/17/2008 7:04:28 PM PDT by Intolerant in NJ
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To: Chet 99

Thanks, Michael.


37 posted on 10/17/2008 7:40:52 PM PDT by Salvation ( †With God all things are possible.†)
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To: Chet 99
This is what Team Obama thinks of the small businessman

Youtube - Obama Attacks Joe the Plumber

Youtube - Joe Biden Insults Joe the Plumber and All Small Business Owners




Youtube - Joe the Plumber - McCain/Palin Ad

Joe the Plumber Interviewed in His Front Yard

LEAVE JOE THE PLUMBER ALONE!
38 posted on 10/18/2008 3:27:58 AM PDT by Fred (The Democrat Party is the Nadir of Nihilism)
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To: nhwingut
I predict Joe is the October Surprise. And Obama and his media minions didn't realize it until it was too late.

OBama "is" the October surprise.
SURPRISE

39 posted on 10/18/2008 3:34:11 AM PDT by MaxMax (I'll welcome death when God calls me. Until then, the fight is on)
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