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Michael Barone: Joe the Plumber Gives McCain a Chance to Overtake Obama
US News ^

Posted on 10/17/2008 1:42:24 PM PDT by Chet 99

Joe the Plumber Gives McCain a Chance to Overtake Obama

October 17, 2008 03:50 PM ET | Michael Barone | Permanent Link | Print

It was October 13. The candidate of the out party seemed to be cruising toward victory. He projected an image of confidence, promising to restore national unity, and ignored his opponent. Then he made a little mistake. Veteran reporter Robert J. Donovan tells the story:

"As the [candidate] had begun to speak from the rear platform in Beaucoup, Illinois, his train suddenly lurched a few feet backward toward the crowd in what might have been, if the movement had continued, a serious accident. However, the train stopped quickly, yet [the candidate], momentarily losing his poise, exclaimed into the microphone, "That's the first lunatic I've had for an engineer. He probably ought to be shot at sunrise, but I guess we can let him off because no one was hurt.'"

The candidate was Thomas E. Dewey, who was running against Harry Truman in 1948. The most recent Gallup polls showed Dewey leading Truman 46 percent to 40 percent (September 23-28) and 46.5 percent to 39 percent (September 10-15). Truman seized on the "engineer" comment, and Truman backers portrayed it as an example of elite Republican contempt for the working man. The final Gallup poll, conducted October 15-25, showed Dewey still ahead 49.5 percent to 44.5 percent.

The story goes that Dewey encountered Dr. George Gallup during the campaign and asked why he didn't keep polling after October 25. Dr. Gallup replied that in his vast experience—which consisted of just three presidential campaigns, since the first Gallup poll was taken in October 1935—voters did not change their minds in the last weeks of the campaign.

(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; barone; joetheplumber; mccain; obama; wurzelbacher
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1 posted on 10/17/2008 1:42:24 PM PDT by Chet 99
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To: Chet 99

I sure hope he’s right!
It’s like Joe was a gift from on high. ;^)


2 posted on 10/17/2008 1:45:00 PM PDT by kimchi lover (Joe the Plumber is my Homeboy!)
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To: Chet 99
I have one problem with this-any time you hear someone invoke Truman-Dewey, they're more likely to lose.

that said, it's usually in the vein that "I'm a fighter just like Harry Truman!" Mondale, Dukakis, Dole, and Kerry all invoked Truman in this way.

The encouraging thing is, this is the first time I heard this story, that no one has ever gone into the internals of WHY Dewey blew it.

3 posted on 10/17/2008 1:46:23 PM PDT by HammerOfTheDogs
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To: Chet 99
I predict Joe is the October Surprise. And Obama and his media minions didn't realize it until it was too late.


4 posted on 10/17/2008 1:46:53 PM PDT by nhwingut (,)
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To: Chet 99

I’m buying stock in plunger manufacturing companies.

We should be expecting every freeper in a state with an Obama rally or event to be purchasing plungers and supporting Joe.

I’m with Joe!


5 posted on 10/17/2008 1:47:03 PM PDT by Gemsbok (Fight voter FRAUD (Acorn)(Obama) and be a poll worker or observer: Beat them at their own game!)
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To: Gemsbok

Plungers are the new flip flops.


6 posted on 10/17/2008 1:47:48 PM PDT by nhwingut (,)
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To: Chet 99

I’m buying stock in plunger manufacturing companies.

We should be expecting every freeper in a state with an Obama rally or event to be purchasing plungers and supporting Joe.

I’m with Joe!


7 posted on 10/17/2008 1:48:01 PM PDT by Gemsbok (Fight voter FRAUD (Acorn)(Obama) and be a poll worker or observer: Beat them at their own game!)
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To: Chet 99

CONGRATULATIONS, TOM DEWEY

Congratulations, Tom Dewey
You won by a landslide today
Through thick and through thin
We knew you would win
Cause who’d ever vote to let Truman stay in
Congratulations, Tom Dewey
Your Republican dreams have come true
Here’s a victory roar
For president number thirty-four
The White House is waiting for you


8 posted on 10/17/2008 1:51:26 PM PDT by HammerOfTheDogs
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To: Chet 99

My biggest problem with Barone’s comparison is related to the polling itself. It is doubtful that the Dewey-Truman polls were skewed towards one candidate as much as the current polls are. Even when one takes out the ‘outliers’ it is unlikely that Obama is really up by 6-points.


9 posted on 10/17/2008 1:52:20 PM PDT by tatown (RINO's have destroyed the Republican party.)
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To: Chet 99

As a licensed plumber from Georgia I can vouch for the vastly superior intelligence of Plumbers.

I can supply plungers to anyone who needs one {used ones at a discount}


10 posted on 10/17/2008 1:53:22 PM PDT by southernerwithanattitude ({new and improved redneck})
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To: kimchi lover

Joe refocussed the campaign on the difference between the ideologies of redistribution vs wealth creation.

That’s one we’ll win every time.


11 posted on 10/17/2008 1:54:59 PM PDT by MrB (0bama supporters: What's the attraction? The Marxism or the Infanticide?)
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To: Chet 99

12 posted on 10/17/2008 1:55:09 PM PDT by xcamel (Conservatives start smart, and get rich, liberals start rich, and get stupid.)
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To: Chet 99
I AM JOE
Photobucket
13 posted on 10/17/2008 1:55:59 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper (Liberal anti-US Obama win would be the first time I am ashamed of my country.)
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To: Chet 99

I stand by my prediction but tempered by the following disclaimer: I am right as often as Dick Morris and even a stopped clock is on target two times a day.

My granddaughter, in the year 2020 perhaps, will study American history. She will read of the three words that brought down the almost guaranteed presidency of the first African American President: “SPREAD THE WEALTH”.


14 posted on 10/17/2008 1:56:21 PM PDT by Fishtalk
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To: Chet 99

Joe means nothing unless McCain gets Obama’s video on the air. Haven’t seen a thing.


15 posted on 10/17/2008 1:56:58 PM PDT by Swampmarine
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To: Chet 99
Photobucket My prized plunger!!!
16 posted on 10/17/2008 1:57:28 PM PDT by blf1776 (Compassionate Conservatism Is Dead - It is time to fight, fight, FIGHT!!!!)
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To: nhwingut

A October surprise is something that is pre planned.

The only way that Joe is the October surprise is if he was a plant which would be impossible considering no one knew BO was going to be in his neighborhood.

So lets stop calling Joe the OS.

I think the real planned OS is yet to come next week.


17 posted on 10/17/2008 1:57:57 PM PDT by Jazz1968
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To: Chet 99
Please spread the word and help defeat the MSM and Obama campaign to supress the conservative vote by pointing folks to:

SARAH PALIN DRAWING LARGE CROWDS ALL ACROSS AMERICA
http://www.jeffhead.com/palin/palin-hiding.htm

One look at those crowds and people will know the real truth about what is happening on the ground in this campaign right now.

18 posted on 10/17/2008 1:58:44 PM PDT by Jeff Head (Freedom is not free...never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: Chet 99

It’s my understanding that because of Obama, Joe lost his job. Anyone know about this? I’ve also heard that Obama was mocking in his last speech.


19 posted on 10/17/2008 2:01:26 PM PDT by RC2
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To: RC2

I don’t think so - they were trying to get that to happen, the fascists, but I don’t think they actually got the job done.


20 posted on 10/17/2008 2:03:27 PM PDT by MrB (0bama supporters: What's the attraction? The Marxism or the Infanticide?)
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