Skip to comments.One Major Difference Between 2010 and 2018
Posted on 02/08/2018 10:07:11 AM PST by Kaslin
Republicans are understandably nervous about the parallels between the 2010 midterm elections that brought them to power and the 2018 midterms where Democrats envision a return to power.
Eight years ago, a polarizing new president was facing his first midterm election. Progressives and conservatives offered wildly different interpretations of his every word. Despite polls showing his major legislative dream was unpopular, that president relentlessly pursued it. His efforts inspired a resistance known as the Tea Party.
On top of that, unnerving interim elections rattled the president's party. A Republican won the Governorship in New Jersey, which was about as unusual as a Democrat winning a 2017 Senate race in Alabama. And, of course, there was the real shock of Scott Brown's upset victory in Massachusetts. If a Republican could win Ted Kennedy's old seat in a wave year, it's certainly easy to imagine Democrats winning 2018 Senate races in states like Missouri, Indiana and West Virginia.
Adding to Republican nightmares, the general trend goes back a lot further. Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama all came into power with their party in control of the White House. All three lost Congress during their tenure. Never before in American history have we witnessed such a three-peat. Voters have fundamentally rejected both political parties and are constantly in a mood to throw the bums out.
As we head into the 2018 midterms, there is a reasonable chance that President Trump could become the fourth straight president to lose control of Congress. To win a majority in the House, Democrats need to gain 24 seats. In four of the last ten midterm elections, the party out of power has picked up more than 24 seats and the political environment currently seems strong for the Democrats. It's easy to identify where the Democrats could make their gains. At ScottRasmussen.com, we currently rate 45 House races as potentially competitive. Thirty-eight of them are currently held by Republicans.
For all the similarities, however, there is one huge difference between 2010 and 2018. It's the difference between Obamacare and the Republican tax cut.
After it passed, Obamacare never gained ground in the court of public opinion. There were no short-term benefits for voters but many unpleasant surprises. Millions were unable to keep their doctor, buying insurance didn't mean you could find a doctor who would take it, and the prices went up rather than down. Over time, the reality of Obamacare proved to be such a drag on Democrats that Republicans now hold more political power than at any point since the 1920s.
In contrast, the tax cut has already seen a big jump in public approval because the results have pleasantly surprised voters. When the bill was being debated, nearly half expected their own taxes would go up. Now, 90 percent are finding more money in their paychecks because their taxes have gone down. Not only that, millions of voters have received cash bonuses and pay raises while the news is filled with stories of companies expanding and hiring more workers. Once again, reality is more powerful than rhetoric.
Republicans undoubtedly face a difficult midterm election this year, but the tax cut legislation may enable them to minimize their losses. It might even be enough for the GOP to retain control of Congress.
hey, you know what he great? A wall and some head- spinning deportations. No more of this holding the dreamers hostage nonsense, on their pathway to freedom or whatever the hell they call it. The window is closing on the demographics and this is /was our last shot. If things stay the same as always its President Camacho from here on out. President Barbara Williams-Johnson I just made that up but I bet shell win one if these days. Wall. Deport.
In contrast, the tax cut has already seen a big jump in public approval because the results have pleasantly surprised voters.I'd venture that a great deal of the pleasant surprise can be attributed to the doom-and-gloom pronouncements from the dims and their MSM lackeys. Who are you gonna believe, us or your own lyin' eyes?
There are a lot more differences than that. Far be it from me to jinx things with unfounded optimism, but I think the starting point should be that the marginal Democrat voter cannot be bothered to get off the couch to vote in a midterm election.
We should have treated Obama as disrespectfully as they treat Trump, but it would have been called racism. Still, we were WAY too nice.
My prediction. The Democrtas gain two Senate seats and 35 - 45 House seats.
I hate to say it, but the more success Trump has, the more energized the Democrat base gets.
What’s going to make the difference is whether we are as motivated as the Democrats. The Democrats are very motivated. The Republicans (both the rank and file, the GOPe, and the President) are not doing much to motivate the GOP voters. Instead of attacking each other, they should be attacking the Democrats.
There have been a few races that the GOP lost recently because the Dems were anxious to demonstrate how motivated they are. The GOP needs to get itself motivated, or else Nancy Pelosi will soon be Speaker again, and will be leading an impeachment campaign against Trump.
We can’t do much to suppress the Dem vote. What we can do is motivate our own base. The GOP needs to get itself motivated. I don’t see that happening.
One issue that could motivate Reps (and Indies) is illegal immigration.
The Dems knew if they continued to keep the government shut down the Republicans would pound them by saying they favor Illegal Immigrants over the Military & Seniors & Citizens, etc. and they would be annihilated in the mid-terms.
Unfortunately instead of getting everyone mad the Dems, Trump and the Republicans came up with their own Amnesty plan and this new spending bill does nothing on the Wall and illegal immigration.
They need to run ads with Nancy Pelosi talking about Dreamers in select areas. The “select areas” point is important because its sells in some areas, notably CA.
Wrong, it’s not the base which is energized by Trump success. It is the media which grows more hate filled and desperate with his successes.
Wont doubt you, sadly.
Rs are not emotionally stoked with such things as They cheated! F the 1%! Family killers! Save the Earth! and Free college!
Will Rs put effective ads out here? Can they develop effective countermeasures? Is it all on Trump?
the marginal Democrat voter cannot be bothered to get off the couch to vote in a midterm election.
“I always believed that until I saw the 101% black turnout for Doug Jones.”
They can do that in a limited number of places, but it requires filling out ballots for people and busing ringers in from other states. Not so easy in a general election.
That energized part of the Democrat base of which you speak is only made up of about half of all Democrats - about 20% of the voters. The blue-collar, union, and other such Democrats - you know, the ones who actually work in the private sector rather than either working for the government or just receiving benefits - these are the same kind of folks many of whom turned out for Trump in 2016, and while I think you’re right about their base getting even more energized by Trump’s successes to vote against him, I believe that will be more than offset by these new “Reagan” Democrats, who won’t want to do anything in 2018 to stop the Trump train, and therefore will not be pulling the lever for any Democrat who is vocally against Trump - which is basically all of them.
And on top of that, you can bet that the Dems are really going to screw themselves by making the midterm a mandate about Trump and campaign on getting elected so that the Dems can impeach him. That is going to backfire bigtime, and if they really are banging that drum, then I wouldn’t be surprised if we picked up seats in both the House and the Senate!
A few other considerations:
Scandal can make a big impact. Mueller is probably timing something to spring as an “October Surprise”. On the other side, there is a ton of Democrat scandal that can be laid out every month between now and the election. Scandal is one of the most powerful ways to suppress the opponent’s base.
The sexual harassment settlements by House members can still be exposed before the election - they would do the most damage after the primaries, and release is controlled by the Republicans.
Republican’s committees are out raising the Democrat’s five to one. Individual candidates are more even, but there is an unusual fundraising move toward Republicans.
The Senate map heavily favors the Republicans to make gains.
The generic poll has shifted big time toward the Republicans, since the tax bill was passed. The historic norm would indicate that a +8 in the generic poll would equal enough seats for the Democrats to take the House. In December they were well above that, but recently they were well below that.
Presidential approval rating is also used as an indicator of Party performance. By that measure, Democrats would need Trump’s approval somewhere below 40-44% going into the election to take the House, but he is above that now.
Also, 2018 will be the first election in a generation where the Republican Party will no longer be subject to a judicial consent decree, which has long banned Republicans from doing ANYTHING to protect voter integrity.
It remains to be seen if they can muster any actual effort to prevent unauthorized people from voting, but it is a wildcard this cycle.
Well, they better also pay attention to who and how the vote is counted.
I agree they get more energized with Trump’s success, but they also get SMALLER. There is a lot less base to energize.
I wish that were true, but it isn’t. Remember 2006?
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