Skip to comments.Mixed Signals: Analyzing Elections Since Trump Won Presidency
Posted on 03/05/2018 8:30:40 AM PST by Az Joe
Key points in analyzing elections
This past Tuesday marked the 75th time a Democrat and a Republican faced off in a special election for a state or federal office since President Donald Trump won the 2016 election. The result in District 35 of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, a solidly Democratic seat in the Pittsburgh area won easily by a Democrat, did not tell us much on its own. Yet taken as a whole, the 75 special elections and the regular elections in New Jersey and Virginia in November 2017 may offer some clues as to how the political environment is developing as we head toward November 2018.
With lazy stand-pat “Republicans” sitting on their hands, the outlook seems really bleak.
I don’t see the Republicans getting wiped out this November as a bad thing, in fact, I think it’s good because it will get rid of the deadwood, and the Republicans can build up to 2020, with a party that’s more aligned with Trump.
And Trump isn’t going to be Impeached, so you can put that aside.
I am very angry at Republicans who are barely supporting this president. I am angry at Republicans who openly oppose him and those who refuse to stop Mueller, so I may not rouse myself to vote in a special election.
I will vote (R) in the next general election to protect Trump from impeachment.
We MUST Cantorize the Bush League Republicans and replace them with patriots who side with the citizens and the rule of law.
In AZ, the Bush League Republicans are already fixing that race for McSallycain to be the next Amnesty Senator.
If their base is conservative, and not excited, the sooner they are gone, the better.
Also, losing them while there is a good buffer in numbers is a good time to jettison them.
I’m not worried about impeachment but it will be the end of the MAGA legislative agenda, and that’s a problem.
However I believe people aren’t as dumb as fake pollsters think, and while they may blow off inconsequential local/state/special elections (because really, what different does an R or a D make in most of them?) - they will start paying attention before the midterms.
And of course this is what Trump’s 2020 re-election announcement was all about. He will be in full campaign mode for the 2018 mid-terms telling his base essentially that if you want MAGA and you like what we’ve been doing to wipe out ISIS, cut taxes, remove stupid regulations that hurt job creation and all the rest - you need to vote for the candidates Trump will be working for in 2018 to pave the way for 2020.
It’s a brilliant strategy! But a very natural move for a showman who understands how to engage and persuade.
And now he’s got a top-notch digital elections guru laying out the plan and running the show from a 3 year advance perspective, with 2018 and the opening act.
Don’t analyze special elections, they’re too one off, usually happen with little national attention and participation from the party agendas. They just aren’t part of the trend.
...and, as in golf, never take advice from your adversary.
I’m predicting -10 in the House and +5 in the Senate for Republicans. Much of it depends on the March - April Tax Cut Bounce and what happens to Mueller/Dems before the generals.
I have a feeling both sides are plotting an October surprise.
The R party needs to get its act. And money. Together. Fast!
The RNC chair needs to be replaced. Raises money, but is worthless.
Maintaining control of the Senate is absolutely necessary to get judges appointed to the judiciary.
I think Rs gain 1-2 in House, +5-7 in Senate with a net +3-4 Trumpers in the Senate)
>I think Rs gain 1-2 in House, +5-7 in Senate with a net +3-4 Trumpers in the Senate)
Yeah, and I don’t doubt that Trump has some real scandals to drop on the Dems from August until October.
Rs running about 2.6 behind Trump, whereas Ds ran 6 behind Zero. Don’t see a lot of alarm here.
Even in special elections (where the turnout is ridiculously low-—GA was 9%, the CT seat was down 75% from 2016 and won by the D by 51 votes), Rs still running ahead of Dems in 2012.
And you have to keep in mind that not EVERYONE who supports Trump is a traditional doctrinaire Conservative (witness the present row over tariffs).
Let’s see what happens in NOVEMBER
OK ? Thanks media morons
The nation will do what it has done throughout the modern era.
Dems will do well in the House, not as well in the Senate due to the seats available.
With Dems doing better and Rinos still around, expect gridlock, which isn’t the worst thing in the world.
The Republican party I'm afraid is the party of do-nothing Jeff Sessions and the many Republican congressman who support Jeff.
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